中金：港股通与恒指调整预览（2024-8）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming adjustments to the Hang Seng Index, highlighting potential candidates for inclusion such as Sinopharm and XPeng Motors-W, and the implications for the Hong Kong Stock Connect and Hang Seng Composite Index adjustments [1][8]. Group 1: Index Adjustments - The Hang Seng Index Company will announce the results of the semi-annual review on August 16, 2024, with changes taking effect on September 9, 2024 [9][17]. - An estimated 25 stocks are expected to meet the criteria for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while 33 stocks may be removed due to various reasons such as market capitalization below HKD 4 billion [8][9]. Group 2: Alibaba's Dual Primary Listing - Alibaba is projected to complete its transition from a secondary listing to a dual primary listing by the end of August 2024, which may allow it to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect by the September review [2][8]. - The company has already met other requirements for inclusion, such as being listed for over six months and maintaining a market capitalization of at least HKD 20 billion [2]. Group 3: Trading Dynamics - Following the index adjustments, there may be significant trading volume spikes, particularly on the last trading day before the changes take effect, as passive funds adjust their holdings to minimize tracking error [3][9]. - Active funds may engage in arbitrage based on the announced results of the index adjustments [3]. Group 4: Inclusion Criteria - New listings can be included in the index if they rank within the top 10% of total market capitalization after their first trading day [5][11]. - Stocks must meet specific turnover requirements based on their listing duration to qualify for inclusion in the index [5][11]. Group 5: ETF Tracking - The total assets under management for ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index are approximately USD 25.76 billion, USD 4.95 billion, and USD 15.14 billion, respectively [14][18]. - The potential changes in index constituents will directly impact the investment scope of the Hong Kong Stock Connect [16].