Is a Beat in the Cards for Incyte (INCY) in Q2 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Incyte Corporation (INCY) is expected to exceed expectations in its second-quarter 2024 results, scheduled for release on July 30, before the market opens [1] Revenue Sources - Incyte primarily generates product revenues from its lead drug, Jakafi (ruxolitinib), in the United States and other marketed drugs [2] - The company earns product royalty revenues from Novartis AG (NVS) for the commercialization of Jakafi in markets outside the U.S. [3] - Incyte also receives royalties from Tabrecta (capmatinib), which is approved for treating metastatic non-small cell lung cancer, with Novartis holding exclusive worldwide rights for its development and commercialization [4] Sales Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Jakafi's sales in Q2 2024 is projected at $673 million [7] - Opzelura sales are estimated at $112 million for the same quarter, driven by increasing patient demand and payer coverage [5] - Sales estimates for other drugs include Iclusig at $30.12 million, Minjuvi at $27.49 million, and Pemazyre at $20.62 million [23] Recent Developments - In February 2024, Incyte entered into an asset purchase agreement with MorphoSys AG, acquiring exclusive global rights for tafasitamab, marketed as Monjuvi in the U.S. and Minjuvi outside the country [10] - Incremental sales from newly approved drugs like Opzelura and Zynyz are expected to contribute positively to Incyte's revenues in the upcoming quarter [22] Earnings Performance - Incyte has a mixed earnings surprise history, beating estimates in two of the last four quarters and missing in the other two, with an average negative earnings surprise of 6.24% [12] - The company's Earnings ESP is +7.41%, with the most accurate estimate at $1.25 compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.16 [24] Market Performance - Incyte's shares have increased by 4.8% year-to-date, contrasting with a 2% decline in the industry [21] - The company is expected to benefit from higher royalties from Novartis due to increased Jakavi sales in international markets [20]