TG Therapeutics: Pressure On Briumvi To Perform As Share Price Hits Resistance

Core Viewpoint - TG Therapeutics has faced challenges following the launch of Briumvi, with initial expectations not aligning with actual performance, leading to a more conservative approach in guidance and management tone [3][18][19] Company Guidance and Performance - In early November 2023, the company provided Q4 2023 net sales guidance of $33-37 million, ultimately delivering $39.9 million [3] - For Q1 2024, guidance was set at $41-46 million, with actual net sales reaching $50.5 million, indicating strong performance [3] - The company increased its Q2 2024 guidance to $65 million and raised the full-year net sales guidance to $270-290 million, reflecting positive sales trends [3][18] Market Dynamics - The U.S. anti-CD20 market is experiencing significant growth, with a year-over-year increase of 19% in Q2 2024, leading to an annualized net sales run rate approaching $8 billion [13][22] - Ocrevus and Kesimpta, key competitors, have shown strong performance, with Ocrevus growing 9% year-over-year to $1.89 billion and Kesimpta achieving 63% growth to $799 million [4][11] Patient Metrics - New patient starts for Briumvi are estimated to be between 1,400 to 1,500 in Q2 2024, which would indicate a market share approaching 15% in the anti-CD20 class [25] - Approximately 10% to 20% of patients are being prescribed Briumvi outside of the company's patient hub, which could further enhance market penetration [7] Financial Outlook - The company is expected to reach cash flow breakeven as soon as Q3 2024 and non-GAAP profitability by Q4 2024, with GAAP profitability anticipated by Q1 2025 [17][18] - There is potential for share buybacks and pipeline expansion through in-licensing deals, contingent on stock performance and financial health [17][18]