Is a Beat in Store for Canadian Natural (CNQ) in Q2 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) is expected to report second-quarter earnings on August 1, with a consensus estimate of 55 cents per share and revenues of $6.2 billion, reflecting a year-over-year improvement of 27.9% in earnings and a 5.5% increase in revenues [2][13]. Group 1: Recent Performance - In the last reported quarter, CNQ missed the consensus earnings estimate, reporting adjusted earnings per share of 51 cents, which was a penny below expectations, while revenues of $6.1 billion exceeded the consensus by 1.8% due to strong production [3]. - The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise average of 5.5%, having topped estimates in two of the last four quarters [13]. Group 2: Production and Infrastructure - CNQ is anticipated to benefit from higher production levels, with an expected output of 1,327,890 barrels of oil equivalent per day during the quarter [6]. - The recent startup of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion is expected to enhance CNQ's crude oil transportation efficiency, reducing bottlenecks and transportation costs, which should support higher export volumes and profitability [7]. Group 3: Market Conditions - Strengthening oil prices are likely to significantly benefit CNQ's revenues and cash flows, with a forecasted mid-single-digit revenue growth for the quarter [14]. - The estimated price for North America Light Crude Oil & NGL is projected at C$71.14 per barrel, indicating a 10% improvement from the previous year [14]. Group 4: Earnings Expectations - The company has an Earnings ESP of +9.84% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat this season [9][8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second-quarter bottom line has remained unchanged over the past week, suggesting stability in expectations [13].