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Mitsui: Off To A Slow Start
MITSYMitsui(MITSY) Seeking Alpha·2024-08-02 07:12

Core Viewpoint - Mitsui & Co. reported Q1 earnings for Fiscal 2025, showing progress but lagging behind its annual profit and cash flow targets, primarily due to one-time gains from asset sales [3][5][10] Financial Performance - Mitsui's FY 2025 plan targets ¥900 billion net income and ¥1 trillion core operating cash flow, with Q1 results showing 31% progress towards profit and 22% towards cash flow [3][4] - Q1 core operating cash flow was ¥215.8 billion against a plan of ¥1 trillion, indicating a 22% achievement [4][8] - The company achieved 31% of its profit target in Q1, largely due to gains from the sale of two businesses in the Machinery & Infrastructure segment [3][5] Segment Contributions - Energy segment is expected to contribute significantly in H2 FY 2025, with LNG prices trending upward [4][6] - The Machinery & Infrastructure segment's profit was boosted by asset sales, but cash taxes on these gains negatively impacted operating cash flow [6][10] - The Mineral and Metal Resources segment is on track, with stable iron ore prices, although forecasts predict declines in the coming years [6][10] Valuation and Capital Management - Mitsui shares closed at ¥3399, with a P/E ratio of 11.2 times FY 2025 plan earnings, indicating a competitive valuation [8] - The company plans to pay out ¥298 billion in dividends for FY 2025, with a payout ratio of 33% and ongoing buybacks of ¥200 billion [8][9] - Net debt increased by ¥100 billion in Q1, while equity rose by ¥400 billion, resulting in a net debt/equity ratio of 0.44 [9] Future Outlook - The company faces headwinds in the first quarter but has potential growth avenues in LNG and cleaner businesses [10] - Iron ore prices remain a significant risk, particularly with China's reduced construction activity impacting demand [10]