Is Most-Watched Stock Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Worth Betting on Now?

Core Viewpoint - Alaska Air Group (ALK) has experienced a significant decline in stock performance, with a return of -9.8% over the past month, compared to the S&P 500's -0.4% and the airline industry’s -47.8% [1] Earnings Estimates Revisions - Alaska Air is expected to report earnings of $1.55 per share for the current quarter, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of -15.3% and a 30-day change of -30.1% in the Zacks Consensus Estimate [3] - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year is $4.09, indicating a -9.7% change from the previous year, with a 30-day change of -13.3% [3] - For the next fiscal year, the consensus estimate is $5.90, showing a +44.3% change year-over-year, but with a recent 30-day change of -7.4% [3] Revenue Growth Forecast - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $2.94 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of +3.5% [5] - For the current fiscal year, revenue estimates are $10.74 billion, indicating a +3% change, while the next fiscal year estimate is $11.47 billion, reflecting a +6.8% change [5] Last Reported Results and Surprise History - Alaska Air reported revenues of $2.9 billion in the last quarter, a year-over-year increase of +2.1%, with an EPS of $2.55 compared to $3 a year ago [6] - The reported revenues were below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.95 billion, resulting in a surprise of -1.93%, while the EPS surprise was +8.05% [7] - Over the last four quarters, Alaska Air exceeded consensus EPS estimates three times and surpassed revenue estimates twice [7] Valuation - Alaska Air's valuation metrics, including price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), are essential for assessing whether the stock is fairly valued [8] - The Zacks Value Style Score indicates that Alaska Air is graded A, suggesting it is trading at a discount compared to its peers [9] Conclusion - The current Zacks Rank of 4 for Alaska Air suggests potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [10]