HVAC Manufacturer AAON A Growth Stock For Longer-Term Investors

Investment Thesis - AAON, Inc. is expected to see significant earnings growth, with a projected increase of 23.06% in 2025 and 24.19% in 2026 after a flat 2024 [3][4] - The company has a one-year price target of $99.00 and is rated as a Buy by analysts [3][20] Company Overview - Founded in 1987, AAON specializes in HVAC systems for commercial and industrial markets, generating 69% of its revenue from rooftop units and 97% domestically [4] - The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX, with a significant customer, Texas AirSystems, accounting for 13.8% of sales in 2023 [4] - AAON reported a record backlog of $650 million at the end of Q2-2024, up from $526 million the previous year, indicating strong demand [4] Financial Performance - In Q2-2024, AAON's net sales increased by 10.4% to $313.6 million, with a gross margin of 36.1% and earnings per diluted share rising 12.7% to $0.62 [7] - The sales growth was primarily driven by the BASX segment, which saw a 58.3% increase in sales, mainly from data center equipment [7] - The company had total assets of $1.011 billion and total liabilities of $270.2 million, including $85.9 million in long-term debt [7] Competitive Landscape - AAON faces intense competition from larger companies such as Lennox International, Trane Technologies, and Carrier Global, but it competes on total value rather than price [5][6] - The company has maintained higher margins than industry medians, with a gross margin of 36.27% compared to 31.33% for the sector [6] Growth Prospects - AAON's revenue and earnings are expected to grow significantly in the coming years, with analysts projecting a return to growth in 2025 after a flat 2024 [10][11] - The company has invested approximately $43.7 million in R&D in 2023 to enhance its product offerings and maintain competitive advantages [4] Valuation - AAON's stock is considered overvalued based on current metrics, with a PEG ratio above fair value, indicating that growth may not justify high P/E ratios [16][17] - The average price target from Wall Street analysts is $99.00, suggesting an upside potential of 11.62% from the current trading price [19] Dividend Information - AAON has a forward dividend yield of 0.36% with an annual payout of $0.32, having paid dividends for 16 consecutive years [13]