Goldman Sachs Lowers Probability of US Recession

KEY TAKEAWAYSGoldman Sachs has lowered the chances of the U.S. falling into a recession in the next 12 months to 20% from 25%, following reassuring data on retail sales and jobless claims.The Wall Street bank said that it had raised its probability of a U.S. recession to 25% after July data showed unemployment rising to the highest since October 2021.Goldman said it expects a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, barring weaker-than-expected jobs data, which could trigger a 5 ...