Bilibili Is A Buy On Favorable Top Line And Profitability Outlook (Rating Upgrade)

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili Inc. is upgraded from a Hold to a Buy rating due to expected positive earnings in Q3 2024 and significant revenue growth acceleration for the full year [1] Financial Performance - Bilibili's Q2 2024 revenue grew by +16% YoY, reaching RMB6,127 million, which was +1% higher than the consensus estimate of RMB6,090 million [3] - The mobile games business revenue increased by +13% YoY to RMB1,007 million in Q2 2024, a significant turnaround from a -13.1% YoY contraction in Q1 2024 [3] - The normalized net loss per share improved from -RMB2.33 in Q2 2023 and -RMB1.06 in Q1 2024 to -RMB0.65 in Q2 2024, better than the consensus forecast of -RMB0.75 [3] - Advertising revenue grew by +30% YoY to RMB2,038 million, increasing its proportion of total revenue from 30% in Q2 2023 to 33% in Q2 2024 [3] - Gross margin expanded by +6.8 percentage points YoY to 29.9% in Q2 2024, while operating expenses as a percentage of sales improved from 47% in Q2 2023 to 39% [3] Growth Prospects - Bilibili's deferred revenue balance increased by +25% QoQ to RMB3,725 million as of end-Q2 2024, indicating strong future top-line performance [4] - The new game "San Guo: Mou Ding Tian Xia" (San Mou) has returned to the Top 3 on the iOS game grossing chart, suggesting positive momentum for the mobile games business [4] - The number of advertisers expanded by over +50% YoY for 1H 2024, with expectations for above-industry average advertising growth in 2H 2024 [5] - Revenue growth in RMB terms is projected to improve from +3% in the previous year to +18% for the current year [5] Valuation - Bilibili's PEG (Price-to-Earnings Growth) valuation metric is attractive at 0.43 times, based on a consensus FY 2025-2028 normalized EPS CAGR forecast of +61% and a consensus FY 2025 normalized P/E multiple of 26 times [7]