PCE Numbers Keep "Soft Landing" Narrative Aloft

Economic Reports - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report is crucial for monetary policy discussions, particularly regarding interest rate adjustments [1] - Current economic conditions suggest potential for either a 25 basis-point or a 50 basis-point cut, with a deeper cut being more likely if market conditions worsen [1] PCE Data Summary - July PCE Index month-over-month increased by +0.2%, matching expectations and showing a slight improvement from June's +0.1% [2] - Year-over-year PCE headline inflation remained at +2.5%, consistent with previous months and at multi-year lows since February 2021 [2] - Core PCE year-over-year was +2.6%, down 10 basis points from estimates, indicating stable inflation [2] Income and Spending Insights - July Personal Income rose to +0.3%, exceeding the expected +0.2% and June's figure [3] - Personal Spending was reported at +0.5%, aligning with expectations but below the +0.7% seen in March 2024 [3] - Real Personal Spending adjusted for inflation increased by +0.4%, the highest since late last year, suggesting controlled inflation [3] Market Reaction - Pre-market futures showed positive movement ahead of the PCE report, with the Dow initially up by +114 points before settling at +62 [4] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also experienced slight pullbacks after the report, indicating a cautious market sentiment [4] Company Earnings Overview - JinkoSolar (JKS) reported Q2 earnings per share of 97 cents, significantly exceeding the expected $0.05, marking a positive surprise of +1840% [5] - However, JinkoSolar's revenues of $3.31 billion fell short of the expected $3.85 billion, representing a -21.6% year-over-year decline [5] - The company did achieve a +34% growth in module shipments year-over-year, reflecting some operational strength despite revenue challenges [5]