American Public Education(US:APEI) Seeking Alphaยท2024-09-02 07:36Core Viewpoint - American Public Education (APEI) has shown significant recovery over the past year, with stock prices more than tripling since last September, attributed to a successful turnaround and consistent profitability [2][6] Company Background - APEI, based in Charles Town, WV, operates institutions focused on career-based higher education for working adults, including American Military University, Hondros College of Nursing, Graduate School USA, and Rasmussen University [3][4] Performance and Recovery - APEI's stock fell from over $25 per share at the time of the Rasmussen acquisition in 2021 to just over $4 per share by last October due to declining enrollment and losses in the Rasmussen segment [4][10] - Since implementing a turnaround strategy in 2023, including cost-cutting measures, APEI has seen improved fiscal results, leading to a rebound in stock performance [7][10] Recent Stock Movements - Following a negative reaction to Q2 2024 earnings, where revenue and earnings were up year-over-year but missed sell-side forecasts, APEI's stock fell nearly 28% but has since recovered towards pre-earnings levels [9][10] - The stock is currently trading at a discounted valuation compared to peers, with a P/E ratio of 12.6 for estimated 2025 earnings, suggesting potential for further price increases [10][11] Insider Activity - Insider buying, particularly by board member Michael David Braner, who increased his shareholding from 1.07 million to over 1.9 million shares, indicates confidence in APEI's future prospects [11] Future Outlook - APEI's stock could potentially reach $20 to $25 per share if the turnaround continues to meet forecasts, despite existing execution and political risks [12][13]