CME Group Downgraded: Analyst Sees Cutthroat Competition From BGC Group, Cboe Global & Intercontinental Exchange

Group 1 - BofA Securities analyst Craig Siegenthaler downgraded CME Group Inc from Neutral to Underperform, lowering the price target from $212 to$177 due to increased competition from BGC Group, Cboe Global Markets, and Intercontinental Exchange [1] - CME is expected to reduce pricing on interest rate futures by over 10% as a defensive strategy in response to the upcoming launch of BGC's FMX Futures Exchange [2] - CBOE's index options volume is projected to grow at a 15% CAGR through 2026, indicating a potential shift where options may increasingly replace CME's equity futures [2] Group 2 - The VIX surged 34% to an average of 19 in August, up from 14 the previous month, driven by weak U.S. employment data, leading to CME's strongest trading volumes since the COVID-19 pandemic [3] - CME's trading volumes in August rose 28% month-over-month, particularly in financial futures, contributing to its stock outperforming all sectors in coverage and the S&P 500 [4] - Despite the current high volatility, a downward normalization is anticipated throughout 2025, suggesting the second half of 2024 may be an appropriate time for the Underperform rating [4]