中金 | 休闲食品行业系列二：中日烘焙行业对比

Japan's Bakery Industry Development - Japan's bakery industry experienced rapid growth from the 1960s to the 1980s, entering a mature phase in the 1990s [1] - The industry's channel structure is closely related to the retail channel structure and consumer demands, with leading companies leveraging early production capacity advantages to continuously gain market share [1] - Yamazaki Baking, the market leader, increased its market share from 23% in 1985 to 42% in 2006 through strategic capacity expansion and brand investment [1][6] - Japan's bakery industry is dominated by the "central factory + wholesale" model, with Yamazaki Baking maintaining a market share of around 36% in recent years [4][6] Yamazaki Baking's Competitive Advantages - Yamazaki Baking built its competitive edge through product diversification, supply chain optimization, and channel expansion [2] - The company expanded its product portfolio from Japanese-style pastries to Western-style pastries, toast, and sweet bread, while also extending into non-bakery categories through acquisitions [2][10] - Yamazaki Baking established a nationwide production network and self-built logistics system to ensure rapid response to market demands [2][10] - The company's revenue is primarily driven by supermarket and convenience store channels, contributing 45.4% and 25.0% of total revenue respectively in 2023 [14] China's Bakery Industry Overview - China's bakery industry is in a growth stage similar to Japan's 1980s-1990s, with per capita consumption at only 14% of Japan's level [3][16] - The industry features diverse business models, including specialty stores, central factory + wholesale, and frozen semi-finished products [3][24] - China's bakery market is highly fragmented, with the top 3 chain brands accounting for only 0.9% of total stores [3] - Emerging channels such as membership supermarkets, snack stores, and B2B scenarios are driving market expansion [18][21] Product Trends and Innovation - Both Japan and China's bakery industries originated from traditional products, with mass production starting from Western-style baked goods [22] - Japan's bakery products combine both staple food and snack attributes, with 80% being packaged products in 2023 [22] - China's bakery industry is expected to see increased adoption of short and medium shelf-life products, with frozen semi-finished products contributing to market growth [22] - Product innovation and scenario expansion are key growth drivers, with potential in breakfast, afternoon tea, and meal replacement scenarios [16][22] Market Structure and Competition - China's bakery market is characterized by diverse supply models and fragmented competition [24] - Specialty stores account for 51% of retail sales, while central factory + wholesale models contribute about 30% [24] - The frozen semi-finished product market is estimated at 15-20 billion yuan in 2023, with significant potential in B2B scenarios [24] - Industrial production efficiency is high in central factory models, but faces challenges from diversified consumer demands and channel fragmentation [24]