海外政策｜详解哈里斯的对华政策思路与影响

Core View - If Harris wins the election, her China policy is expected to largely follow the Biden administration's framework of "competition without conflict," with no significant changes in the tone of US-China relations in the short to medium term [1] - The market has already priced in external shocks, and high-quality companies in the overseas expansion sector may regain attention, with development opportunities in some emerging economies also worth noting [1][2] Harris's China Policy Framework - Harris lacks extensive diplomatic experience, and her China policy is expected to inherit the Biden administration's approach, maintaining a "competition without conflict" stance [1] - In trade and industry, Harris opposes high universal tariffs on China, focusing instead on strategic competition, but existing Trump tariffs are unlikely to be removed [2] - In finance, major disruptions are unlikely in the short term, but the trend toward diversification in global payment systems will accelerate [2] - In technology, Harris is expected to continue strengthening the "Invest in America" and "small yard, high fence" strategies, with a more favorable regulatory environment for US tech companies [2] - In energy, Harris's energy transition stance is more aggressive than Biden's, with climate cooperation remaining a key area for US-China dialogue [2] Impact on Overseas Expansion and Emerging Economies - Since June, the overseas expansion sector has adjusted due to US recession expectations and Trump's rising election odds, but these expectations are now shifting, making high-quality companies in this sector worth revisiting [3] - Harris's potential push for "friend-shoring" could create more space for Chinese companies to expand overseas, even if Trump's extreme tariffs are implemented, the impact on overseas expansion would not be fundamentally disruptive in the short to medium term [4] - Historically, the Democratic Party's supply chain collaboration strategy has benefited emerging economies, and a Harris victory could bring more opportunities to these regions [4] US-China Relations and Election Dynamics - US-China relations are expected to remain stable before the election, with potential opportunities for high-level meetings at APEC and G20 summits [5] - Current election polls are highly volatile, with Harris gaining momentum in swing states, but historical data shows polls often underestimate Trump [5] - The focus of the election is not on China policy, and upcoming debates and economic conditions will be key factors to watch [5]