Why Trevi Therapeutics Could Be a Triple-Bagger Biotech Stock

Core Viewpoint - Trevi Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical firm with high expectations from analysts despite having no FDA-approved products, leading to potential significant returns if its drug Haduvio gains approval [1][2]. Company Overview - Trevi Therapeutics (NASDAQ: TRVI) currently trades at $3.10, with a price target of $9, indicating a potential return of 200% [1]. - The company has a market capitalization of $215 million [10]. Drug Development - Trevi's flagship drug, Haduvio (nalbuphine ER), is in Phase 2 FDA trials targeting chronic cough associated with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) and Refractory Chronic Cough (RCC) [3][4]. - Haduvio has shown efficacy in reducing cough frequency by 50.8% over placebo, and is noted as the first therapy to demonstrate robust effects on chronic cough in IPF [9]. Market Potential - IPF and RCC currently lack specific approved treatments, presenting a significant opportunity for Trevi if Haduvio receives approval [4]. - RCC affects approximately 200 to 500 per 100,000 people, while IPF affects 13 to 20 per 100,000, indicating a larger patient base for RCC [6]. Competitive Landscape - Merck's Gefapixant is an approved treatment for RCC in certain regions but was not approved by the FDA for this indication, highlighting a competitive gap that Haduvio could fill [5]. - Haduvio's ability to target both IPF and RCC markets provides a strategic advantage over Gefapixant, which is limited to RCC [7][8]. Financial Projections - Analysts project Trevi will not see significant revenue until 2028, with an estimated sales forecast of $87 million, potentially increasing to $884 million by 2031 [9]. - The success of Haduvio is critical, as only 12% of drugs entering trials achieve FDA approval, which poses a risk to projected revenues [10].