ANA Holdings: A Risky Buy On Huge Undervaluation

Core Viewpoint - ANA Holdings is experiencing cost growth that is outpacing revenue growth, leading to a decline in operating income and margins, despite strong demand in passenger services and cargo [2][3][4] Revenue Analysis - Passenger revenues increased by 51 billion yen (12.1%), with international passenger services growing by 13.3% on a capacity expansion of 10.3% [2] - Domestic passenger services saw a revenue increase of 6.3%, driven by a 7.7% rise in unit revenues, although capacity decreased by 1.3% [2] - Cargo revenues rose by 11.3%, and revenues from Peach and Air Japan grew by 17.3% due to increased capacity and strong unit revenues [2] Cost Analysis - Total expenses grew by 60.2 billion yen (16%), with half attributed to higher fuel and maintenance costs [2] - Personnel and contract costs increased by 14.3 billion yen, while other costs accounted for the remaining 25% of the cost increase [2] - Operating income declined by 21% to 33.1 billion yen, resulting in a margin drop from 9.5% to 5.9% [2] Margin and Capacity Insights - EBITDA margins decreased from 18.3% to 14.5%, indicating pressure on profitability [2] - Capacity remained at 77% of pre-pandemic levels, suggesting potential for further recovery [2] Risks and Opportunities - Despite strong unit revenues, rising costs, particularly from fuel and staff, pose significant challenges [3] - The launch of Air Japan and stabilization of cargo unit revenues are positive developments for the domestic business [3] Stock Valuation - ANA Holdings is considered difficult to value, with limited EBITDA growth expected in the coming years [3] - Free cash flow (FCF) is projected to trend favorably, indicating a potential 95% upside against peer group valuation [3] - A speculative buy rating is assigned, reflecting the stock's undervaluation and historical price levels, despite challenges in price recovery [4]