宏观｜从上市公司中报透视宏观经济温度

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the second quarter performance of listed companies continues to be weak, with both net profit and revenue showing negative growth, reflecting a slowdown in macroeconomic and financial data [1][2] - In the second quarter, the net profit of all A-shares (excluding financial, oil, and petrochemical sectors) decreased by 9.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 2.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - Revenue for all A-shares (excluding financial, oil, and petrochemical sectors) fell by 3.1% year-on-year in the second quarter, with the decline widening by 3.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating insufficient effective demand [2] Group 2 - The financing demand of listed companies is overall weak, with credit growth lower than the macro-level growth of RMB loans, and the decline in financing demand is greater than that of macro loans [2][3] - The real estate sector has seen a significant improvement in its financing environment, contrasting with the overall weak financing demand [1][2] - A new round of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, real estate, fiscal, and monetary policies have begun to take effect in the third quarter, with expectations for improved corporate performance [1][2] Group 3 - Employment and salary trends show that the growth rate of the total number of employees in listed companies has been declining, which may contribute to the current poor perception of the job market [3] - The average salary growth rate for employees in listed companies is at a historically low level, which could impact residents' income expectations [3][4] - The number of employees in listed companies grew by 1.9% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, but this growth rate is significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels [3] Group 4 - Capital expenditure growth for manufacturing listed companies was -14.7% in the second quarter, a decline of 13.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating weak capital expenditure willingness [4] - The inventory growth rate remains low, and the overall process of going abroad is accelerating, with certain industries like electronics and textiles seeing a significant increase in overseas business [4] - The inventory cycle for manufacturing companies is currently in the early stages of replenishment, with notable replenishment trends in sectors such as computer electronics and chemical raw materials [4] Group 5 - High-frequency data on industrial production and demand continue to show a downward trend, with pressures from insufficient demand being transmitted to the production side [5] - Price data indicates increasing downward pressure, particularly in traditional sectors like coal and steel, while prices in new energy sectors are also declining [5] - Upcoming market focus includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI and non-farm payroll data for August, as well as China's price, import/export, and financial data for the same month [5]