Where Will Nikola Stock Be in 3 Years?

Core Viewpoint - Nikola has faced significant challenges over the past three years, resulting in a nearly 99% decline in stock value, with current trading at 2 times this year's sales [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Nikola went public via a SPAC merger and set ambitious production goals, including shipping 600 BEVs in 2021, 1,200 in 2022, and 3,500 in 2023, along with 2,000 FCEVs in 2023 [2] - The actual performance was far below expectations, with no BEVs shipped in 2021, only 131 in 2022, and 79 in 2023, alongside 35 FCEVs delivered in 2023 [3][4] - Revenue figures show $0 in 2021, $50.8 million in 2022, and $35.8 million in 2023, while net losses increased from $690.4 million in 2021 to $966.3 million in 2023 [4] Group 2: Leadership and Financial Strategy - Nikola has had three different CEOs since its public debut, and its founder was convicted of fraud in 2022, contributing to instability [4] - The company increased its outstanding shares by 278% over three years to raise cash through stock sales [5] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Daimler Truck and Tesla have ramped up their electric semi-truck deliveries, posing a significant threat to Nikola's market position [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Nikola aims to differentiate by increasing FCEV sales and is working with Voltera to build 60 hydrogen charging stations by 2026, although this will increase near-term losses [7] - In the first half of 2024, deliveries rose 49% year over year to 113 trucks, with revenue growing 49% to $38.8 million, and analysts expect revenue to nearly quadruple to $133.5 million for the full year [8] - Analysts project revenue could triple to $406.5 million in 2025 and more than double to $934.2 million in 2026, with an expected adjusted EBITDA margin improvement to negative 17% by 2026 [10] - Despite having $256.3 million in cash, Nikola faces $586.4 million in total liabilities and is expected to incur a net loss of $493 million for the full year, indicating potential cash flow challenges [11]