AUTOHOME-Autohome's Dividend and Buyback Make It a Strong EV Play

Core Viewpoint - Autohome (NYSE: ATHM) presents a compelling investment opportunity in China's electric vehicle (EV) market, distinct from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) which face profitability challenges and intense competition [1][2]. Company Overview - Autohome's current stock price is $27.98, reflecting a gain of 1.97% [2]. - The company operates platforms that connect the automobile industry with consumers, providing services such as advertising, lead generation, listings, transactions, and insurance [2]. - Autohome has a dividend yield of 6.00% and a P/E ratio of 13.26, with a price target set at$ 28.00 [2]. Financial Performance - Autohome's revenue growth is slow, maintaining a low-single-digit pace in Q2 2024, driven by increasing user counts despite sluggish demand due to economic headwinds [3]. - Net income increased nearly 3%, while revenue grew almost 1%, indicating improved earnings performance [3]. - The company has a positive cash flow, allowing it to maintain a strong balance sheet and initiate a $200 million buyback program, representing nearly 6% of its market cap [4]. Dividend and Capital Return - Autohome's annual dividend is$ 1.68, with a 3-year annualized dividend growth of 30.97% and a payout ratio of 79.62% [3][4]. - The dividend is expected to be paid in two semi-annual payments through 2026, reflecting a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [4]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese automobile market is projected to experience low-to-mid-single-digit growth, primarily driven by EV sales, which are expected to grow by 15% to 20% over the next few years [2]. - The introduction of BYD's low-priced Seagull model at approximately $12,000 is anticipated to influence market dynamics significantly [2]. Institutional Interest - Institutional ownership of Autohome is strong, with institutions holding nearly 65% of the stock, including major shareholder Ping An Insurance Group, which owns about 45% [5]. - Despite a "Hold" rating from analysts, the stock shows signs of recovery, with a recent bottom at$ 22 and potential resistance at $27.50, with a target of$ 32 representing about 15% upside [5].