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Why Schwab Won't Benefit From Interest Rate Cuts
SCHWCharles Schwab(SCHW) The Motley Fool·2024-09-21 22:52

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to negatively impact Charles Schwab's profitability, as the company's primary revenue source is net interest income, which thrives in a high-interest-rate environment [1][2][3]. Company Analysis - Charles Schwab's largest revenue source is interest income, accounting for nearly 50% of total revenue, which is unusual for a brokerage firm [2][3]. - The company's net interest revenue peaked in late 2022 and has since declined, with Q2 2023 net interest revenue at 2.16billion,nearly302.16 billion, nearly 30% lower than the same quarter in 2022 [3][4]. - As of Q2 2023, 46% of Schwab's total revenue is derived from net interest revenue, which is affected by falling interest rates [3][4]. Market Conditions - The current economic environment is not favorable for Schwab, with inflation tightening money supply and corporate bankruptcies rising above pre-pandemic levels [6]. - New investor inflows are expected to slow as growth stocks cool off, impacting Schwab's revenue streams [6][7]. Customer Growth - Despite the challenges, Schwab has seen a 20% year-over-year increase in client assets, totaling 9.74 trillion as of August [5][6]. - While a portion of these assets may not generate immediate recurring revenue, they represent potential future monetization opportunities [6]. Long-term Outlook - Schwab is considered a solid long-term holding, but the near-term outlook appears bleak, suggesting that less patient investors may want to explore other options [7].