全球支付｜增长引擎：温和通胀+新兴市场渗透率提升

Core Viewpoint - The growth engine of the payment industry is driven by "moderate inflation + increasing penetration in emerging markets" [1][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's "preventive" rate cut of 50 basis points enhances the likelihood of a soft landing for the U.S. economy [2][8] - Historical reliance on seven rate cuts in 1980 suggests that unexpected rate cuts can help gradually lower inflation, potentially stabilizing it around the 2% target [2] Group 2: Payment Industry Dynamics - Key factors influencing consumer payment industry revenue include transaction volume and transaction fees, driven by total consumer spending and digital payment penetration [3] - The total consumer spending is defined as actual consumption expenditure plus inflation [3] Group 3: Clearing Organizations - Clearing organizations are central to the payment value chain, facilitating connections between consumers and merchants while ensuring efficiency and security in payment settlements [4] - Visa and Mastercard dominate the international card clearing market, holding market shares of 49% and 24% respectively in 2022, excluding the Chinese mainland [4] Group 4: Third-Party Payment Trends - Third-party payments have become mainstream, with digital wallets accounting for 50% of e-commerce and 30% of retail payment methods in 2023, projected to rise to 61% and 46% by 2027 [5] - The integration of payment scenarios is a major driver for the increase in digital wallet penetration, aligning with the trend of digitalization and smart industry evolution [5] Group 5: Key Players in Third-Party Payments - PayPal and Block are leading global third-party payment companies, both focusing on building financial ecosystems through their digital wallets [6]