养老金融｜海外养老金配置趋势与展望

Recent Performance - Most overseas pension funds achieved positive returns in the first half of the year, with returns ranging between 4% and 10% [2] - Over the past 10 years, the annualized returns of these funds have mostly ranged between 5% and 10% [2] - Norway's GPFG achieved an 8.6% return in the first half of the year, Japan's GPIF achieved a 22.7% return in the 2023 fiscal year, and South Korea's NPS achieved a 9.7% return in the first half of the year [2] - The strong performance of US tech stocks, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," significantly contributed to the returns of pension funds in countries like the US, Japan, and Canada [2] - North American stocks accounted for 54.2% of Norway's GPFG equity portfolio, delivering a 15.9% return, the highest among all assets and regions [2] Alternative Assets - Performance of alternative assets such as private equity, venture capital, and real estate has been mixed, with real estate performing poorly [3] - Canada's CDPQ achieved a 13.6% return on equities in the first half of the year, but returns on private equity and real assets were only 6.9% and 1.4%, respectively [3] Currency Impact - The depreciation of currencies like the Japanese yen, South Korean won, and Norwegian krone against the US dollar has boosted the overseas investment returns of corresponding pension funds [3] - In the 2023 fiscal year, the yen depreciated nearly 14% against the dollar, leading to high returns of 41.4% and 15.8% for Japan's GPIF in overseas equities and bonds, respectively [3] Long-Term Perspective - Risk assets such as equities and alternatives have provided the main performance contribution over the long term, despite their higher short-term volatility [4] - As investment horizons lengthen, the cost-effectiveness of risk asset allocation improves, as seen in the cases of Canada's CPPIB, New Zealand's NZSF, and Texas TRS [4] Allocation Trends - Pension funds are increasingly focusing on developed markets and index-based investments [5] - Canada's CPPIB has increased its strategic allocation to developed markets outside its home country from 59% to 77% due to market opportunities and geopolitical risks [5] - South Korea's NPS has increased its allocation to US stocks for four consecutive years, with US stocks now accounting for about two-thirds of its overseas equity portfolio [5] - Japan's GPIF and Norway's GPFG, the two largest pension funds globally, primarily use passive investment strategies, with a focus on sectors like information technology, finance, and industry [5] - The allocation to alternative assets has slightly decreased in recent years but remains relatively high, with a continued focus on emerging fields and frontier industries [5] Overseas Pension Funds' View on China - Investments in China by funds like Canada's CPPIB, Norway's GPFG, and Singapore's Temasek have shown a pattern of initial increase followed by a decrease [6] - In 2024, Canada's CPPIB increased its holdings in companies like Zhenkunxing, China Jushi, Trip.com, NetEase, BOSS Zhipin, and Fuyao Glass, while Norway's GPFG increased its holdings in Tencent, Pinduoduo, Meituan, Trip.com, and New Oriental [6] - Despite short-term reductions due to factors like declining returns, geopolitical risks, and ESG governance, overseas institutions remain confident in China's long-term economic development [6]