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Where Will Intuitive Machines Stock Be in 3 Years?

Core Viewpoint - Intuitive Machines is a high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity in the lunar vehicle sector, having experienced significant stock volatility since its SPAC merger in February 2023 [1][2]. Company Overview - Intuitive Machines went public through a SPAC merger on February 14, 2023, with its stock initially trading at $10, peaking at $81.99, and currently trading around $9 [1]. - The company primarily generates revenue from NASA contracts, with its first Nova-C lander successfully landing on the moon in February 2023, marking the first successful U.S. moon landing since 1972 [3][4]. Financial Performance - At its peak, Intuitive Machines had an enterprise value of $1.48 billion, equating to 18 times its projected 2023 revenue, but this has since dropped to $553 million, or 2.5 times its expected revenue [2]. - The company projected a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 173% from $102 million in 2022 to $759 million in 2024, but actual revenues fell short, with $86 million in 2022 and an estimated $210 million to $240 million for 2024 [5][6]. Future Outlook - Following the successful landing and a new lunar terrain vehicle contract, Intuitive Machines expects revenue growth of 163% to 200% in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 82% from 2023 to 2026, reaching $480 million [7][8]. - Analysts anticipate net losses in 2024 and 2025, but a return to profitability with a net profit of $16 million in 2026 is expected [8]. Operational Challenges - The company faces competition from established aerospace firms and other startups, and its future success hinges on fulfilling existing orders and securing new contracts [9]. - As of the end of Q2 2023, Intuitive Machines had $32 million in cash, sufficient for at least 12 months of operations, but may need to incur additional debt or issue new shares for growth [10]. Investment Potential - If Intuitive Machines meets analysts' 2026 revenue estimates and maintains a valuation of 2.5 times sales, its enterprise value could exceed $1.2 billion [11]. - While the stock may not return to its previous highs, it could still provide significant returns for patient investors if the company successfully expands its business [12].