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3 Real Estate Development Stocks to Consider as Fundamentals Rebound
FORForestar (FOR) ZACKS·2024-10-03 17:40

Industry Overview - The Zacks Real Estate – Development industry includes companies involved in owning, developing, and managing various real estate properties, such as commercial, residential, and mixed-use parcels [3] - Companies in this sector often engage in strategic activities like infrastructure improvement and land planning to enhance economic development and attract job creators [3] Current Market Conditions - Recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have improved buyer sentiment for 2024 and 2025, encouraging real estate development due to lower borrowing costs [4] - The industry is experiencing a significant shortage of new homes due to over a decade of under-building, which is contributing to favorable industry fundamentals [5] - Demand for specific real estate categories, including retail, industrial, logistics, and office spaces, is witnessing healthy growth, driven by post-pandemic consumer preferences and e-commerce trends [6] Economic Challenges - Despite improved investor sentiment, macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are causing supply-chain constraints and inflated material costs, which keep real estate prices high [2][7] - The volume of U.S. commercial real estate transactions decreased by 3% year over year in Q2 2024, totaling 86billion,indicatingsubduedsalesactivity[7]IndustryPerformanceTheZacksRealEstateDevelopmentindustryranks87,placingitinthetop3586 billion, indicating subdued sales activity [7] Industry Performance - The Zacks Real Estate Development industry ranks 87, placing it in the top 35% of 252 Zacks industries, indicating bright near-term prospects [8] - Aggregate earnings estimates for the industry have increased by 10.6% and 7.8% for 2024 and 2025, respectively, reflecting growing confidence in earnings growth potential [9] Stock Performance - Over the past year, the industry has gained 28%, underperforming the S&P 500's growth of 33.7% and the broader Finance sector's increase of 31.9% [11] - The industry is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.73X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 21.57X and the Finance sector's 16.2X [12] Company Highlights - **Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)**: Engaged in the ownership, management, and development of various real estate types, with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and a projected 2024 EPS of 3.28, indicating a significant year-over-year increase [14][16] - Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK): A diversified homebuilding and land development company with a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) and a projected 2024 EPS of 8.35,suggestinga368.35, suggesting a 36% year-over-year increase [17][19] - **Forestar Group Inc. (FOR)**: Focuses on land acquisition and development for residential lots, with a Zacks Rank 3 and a projected fiscal 2024 EPS of 3.72, indicating an 11.7% year-over-year increase [19][23]