过去30年，全球市场单周涨幅20%后如何演绎？【刘晨明&许向真】

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the historical performance of global stock markets after experiencing a weekly increase of over 20%, highlighting patterns and implications for future market behavior [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Historical Performance Analysis - Since 1990, there have been 11 instances across 10 global stock markets where a weekly increase of over 20% occurred, primarily following significant market downturns during global crises [3][4]. - Notable instances include the 1998 Asian financial crisis, the 2000 dot-com bubble burst, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic impact [4][5]. Market Reaction Patterns - Following a significant increase, most cases tend to experience continued upward momentum for several days, with 8 out of 11 cases showing an average further increase of around 8% [5][6]. - After the initial surge, markets typically enter a consolidation phase, with small-cap stocks generally outperforming large-cap stocks during this period [6][8]. Differentiation Over Time - A period of approximately 20 trading days (T20-T60) often leads to market differentiation, where the performance of stocks becomes more mixed, but small-cap stocks tend to maintain better performance regardless of overall market direction [8][9]. - The subsequent phase (T60-T240) is crucial for validating fundamental data, which ultimately determines the market's direction. Successful cases often show continuous improvement in core economic indicators [9][10]. A-Share Market Insights - The recent extreme market performance signals a potential policy shift, indicating that the market may continue to expand towards cyclical growth sectors, particularly in electronics and certain technology areas [1][3]. - Following significant gains, a buffer period is anticipated, influenced by upcoming quarterly reports and external political events, such as the U.S. elections [1][3]. - The key to determining whether the market can enter a bull phase lies in the assessment of fundamental conditions, with a clear logical chain from fiscal deficits to broader economic indicators [1][3].