Triumph (US:TGI) ZACKS·2024-10-09 15:03Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Triumph Financial (TFIN) despite higher revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is set to be released on October 16, 2024, with expectations of quarterly earnings at $0.17 per share, reflecting a -66.7% change year-over-year [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $106.29 million, indicating a 1.5% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 32.91% over the last 30 days, showing a bearish sentiment among analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Triumph Financial is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -22.11% [10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more predictive of earnings beats [5][7]. - A positive Earnings ESP combined with a strong Zacks Rank (1, 2, or 3) has shown a nearly 70% success rate for predicting earnings beats [8]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Triumph Financial was expected to post earnings of $0.21 per share but only achieved $0.08, resulting in a -61.90% surprise [11]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [12]. Conclusion - Triumph Financial does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider other factors before making investment decisions [15].