Analysts Estimate Hilltop Holdings (HTH) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

Core Viewpoint - Hilltop Holdings (HTH) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues for the quarter ended September 2024, with actual results potentially impacting its near-term stock price [1]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for Hilltop Holdings is an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.39, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 31.6%. Revenues are projected to be $302.29 million, down 3.3% from the same quarter last year [3]. - The stock may experience upward movement if the reported numbers exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2]. Estimate Revisions - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 6.9% higher, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Hilltop Holdings is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -2.56%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict deviations from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more reliable [7]. - A positive Earnings ESP combined with a strong Zacks Rank (1, 2, or 3) has historically led to a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time [8]. Historical Performance - Hilltop Holdings has beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of +29.17% in the last reported quarter [11][12]. - Despite this history, the current combination of a negative Earnings ESP and a strong Zacks Rank makes it challenging to predict an earnings beat for the upcoming report [10][15]. Industry Comparison - In the Zacks Banks - Southeast industry, First Community (FCCO) is expected to report earnings of $0.45 per share, a year-over-year increase of 95.7%, with revenues projected to rise 19.2% to $16.65 million [16]. - The consensus EPS estimate for First Community has been revised 4.3% higher, and with a positive Earnings ESP of 1.12% and a Zacks Rank of 2, it is likely to beat the consensus estimate [17].