金融数据｜四季度社融或将改善（2024年9月）

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for September 2024 indicates a continued decline in new social financing and loans, with expectations for improvement in the fourth quarter due to macroeconomic policies [1][2][6]. Social Financing - In September, new social financing totaled 3.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 372.2 billion yuan, with government bonds and RMB loans continuing to be the main support and drag factors [2][3]. - The social financing growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 8.0% compared to August [3]. - Government bonds net financing amounted to 1.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 543.3 billion yuan year-on-year, with significant acceleration in the issuance of special government bonds [3][4]. Credit - New RMB loans in September were 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 720 billion yuan, marking five consecutive months of decline [4]. - Corporate short-term loans, medium to long-term loans, and bill financing showed absolute increases, although year-on-year comparisons remained lower due to high base effects [4]. - The overall credit issuance reflects a trend of reduced lending activity as banks adjust their strategies away from aggressive year-end lending [4]. Deposits - M2 growth rate increased to 6.8% in September, while M1 continued to decline, indicating a shift of funds back into the equity market [5]. - The decline in M1 growth rate is narrowing, potentially linked to the deployment of funds raised from government bond issuances [5]. Future Outlook - A series of macroeconomic policies are expected to take effect in October, including a reduction in mortgage rates and adjustments to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which could stimulate credit demand [6]. - The real estate sector is anticipated to see improved financing conditions as policies aimed at stabilizing the market are implemented [6].