取消“最惠国待遇”，影响有多大？

US-China Trade Relations - US politicians are increasingly advocating for the revocation of China's Most Favored Nation (MFN) status, with Republican senators proposing bills to cancel China's MFN status in 2024 [1][2] - The legal process to revoke China's MFN status is independent of presidential election outcomes and requires a simple majority vote in both the Senate and House of Representatives [1][4] - The US could choose to revoke MFN status for specific products or reinstate an annual review system, significantly increasing tariff flexibility [1][4] Current Status of China's MFN Treatment - The average US MFN tariff rate is approximately 2.2%, which is relatively low globally [1][7] - Approximately 48% of Chinese exports to the US no longer benefit from MFN tariff rates, with the average tariff rate on Chinese goods rising to 19.3% in 2023 from 2.3% in 2018 [1][8] - The US has imposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods, with the average tariff rate on Chinese imports reaching 19.3% by June 2023 [8] Impact of Revoking China's MFN Status - Revoking China's MFN status could raise the average US tariff on Chinese goods to over 60%, combining the non-MFN rate of 42% with an additional 20% under Section 301 [1][9] - Key Chinese export categories such as machinery, vehicles, semiconductors, and minerals would face significantly higher tariffs [9] - The revocation could negatively impact US-China trade, potentially reducing US exports by 0.2% and imports by 6% [1] Tariff Scenarios and Economic Impact - Three tariff scenarios were simulated: (1) US revokes China's MFN status (60% tariff), (2) US imposes 60% tariffs on China and 10% on others, (3) US imposes 60% tariffs on China and 10% on others, with China retaliating with 60% tariffs [11][12] - In scenario 1, China's total exports could decrease by 5.7% and imports by 10.2%, while US exports could decrease by 0.2% and imports by 6% [12] - Scenario 3 shows the most severe impact, with China's exports decreasing by 8.8% and imports by 10.8%, and US exports decreasing by 3.6% and imports by 23.4% [12][13] Macroeconomic Effects - In scenario 1, China's GDP could decrease by 2.1%, with a trade deficit reduction of $102.3 billion, while the US GDP could decrease by 1.8$129.8 billion [14][15] - Scenario 2 shows a more significant impact on the US, with GDP decreasing by 5.1% and trade balance improving by $437.6 billion, while China's GDP decreases by 1.6$492.6 billion [15] Historical Context - The US granted China MFN status in 1979, which became permanent after China joined the WTO in 2001 [3] - Since the pandemic, US lawmakers have repeatedly challenged China's MFN status, proposing bills to revoke it [3]