What's in the Offing for Union Pacific in Third-Quarter Earnings?

Core Insights - Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is set to report its third-quarter 2024 results on October 24, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates revised down by 0.4% to $2.76, while revenue estimates stand at $6.19 billion, reflecting a 4.2% year-over-year growth [1] Financial Performance Expectations - The freight market downturn and a softening consumer market are expected to adversely impact UNP's performance, with freight revenues estimated at $5.7 billion, remaining flat compared to the second quarter of 2024 [1] - Improved operational efficiency, core pricing gains, and intermodal equipment sales are anticipated to benefit UNP's financial prospects, with adjusted operating expenses expected to decline by 2% from the third quarter of 2023 [2] - The operating ratio for the third quarter of 2024 is estimated at 60.3%, an improvement from 63.4% reported in the same quarter of 2023, indicating better cost management [2] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for UNP, with an Earnings ESP of -0.20% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting lower odds for an earnings surprise [3] Recent Performance Highlights - In the second quarter of 2024, UNP reported earnings of $2.74 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.70, marking a 6.61% year-over-year improvement [4] - Operating revenues for the second quarter were $6 billion, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.06 billion, but showing a 0.74% year-over-year increase due to core pricing gains [4]