Earnings Preview: CVR Energy (CVI) Q3 Earnings Expected to Decline

Company Overview - CVR Energy (CVI) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues for the quarter ended September 2024, with earnings expected to be a loss of $0.13 per share, reflecting a change of -106.9% [1][2] - Revenues are projected to be $1.98 billion, down 21.3% from the same quarter last year [2] Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate for CVR has been revised 157.14% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a significant reassessment by analysts [3] - The Most Accurate Estimate for CVR matches the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0% [6] Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a favorable Zacks Rank [4][5] - CVR currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), complicating the prediction of an earnings beat [6] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, CVR was expected to post a loss of $0.30 per share but delivered earnings of $0.09, resulting in a surprise of +130% [7] - Over the past four quarters, CVR has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [7] Industry Context - Valero Energy (VLO), a peer in the Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry, is expected to report earnings of $1.29 per share for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year change of -82.8% [9] - Valero's revenues are projected to be $33.04 billion, down 14% from the previous year, with a consensus EPS estimate revised 7.6% lower [9]