Can Chubb Limited Retain its Beat Streak This Earnings Season?

Core Viewpoint - Chubb Limited (CB) is expected to report third-quarter 2024 earnings on October 29, with a history of beating earnings estimates in the previous four quarters [1] Group 1: Earnings and Premiums - Premiums in the third quarter are anticipated to benefit from growth across product lines, strong premium retention, rate and exposure increases, and solid new business [2] - The acquisition of Cigna's Asia business and strong performance in distribution channels are likely to have positively impacted life insurance premiums [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is $13.5 billion, reflecting a 6.9% increase from the previous year, while the expectation for net premiums earned is $13.3 billion [2] Group 2: Investment Income and Revenue - Chubb expects adjusted net investment income to be between $1.57 billion and $1.63 billion, with an anticipated increase of 13.7% to $1.5 billion [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is $15.2 billion, indicating an 8.2% rise from the year-ago figure [3] - The combined ratio is estimated at 90, indicating a deterioration of 200 basis points from the previous year, with underwriting income expected to be $1.3 billion and the combined ratio at 84.1 [3] Group 3: Expenses and Share Buybacks - Expenses are expected to rise due to higher losses, policy benefits, acquisition costs, administrative expenses, interest expense, and integration costs related to Cigna [3] - Share buybacks in the upcoming quarter are anticipated to positively impact the bottom line [3] Group 4: Earnings Per Share and Predictions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share is $4.92, indicating a decrease of 0.6% from the previous year [4] - The model predicts an earnings beat for Chubb due to a positive Earnings ESP of +1.75%, with the Most Accurate Estimate at $5.01 [5] Group 5: Other Stocks to Consider - Arch Capital Group (ACGL) has an Earnings ESP of +7.91% and a Zacks Rank 3, with a consensus estimate of $1.98, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 14.3% [6] - American Financial Group (AFG) has an Earnings ESP of +1.91% and a Zacks Rank 3, with a consensus estimate of $2.51, indicating a year-over-year increase of 2.5% [6] - Axis Capital Holding (AXS) has an Earnings ESP of +2.87% and a Zacks Rank 3, with a consensus estimate of $2.50, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.8% [7]