IMF预测2025年全球经济增长3.2%

Global Economic Outlook - IMF maintains a soft landing forecast for the global economy but highlights increased uncertainty and downside risks [1] - Global economic growth is projected at 3.2% for both 2024 and 2025, with a slight downward revision of 0.1 percentage points for 2025 compared to the previous forecast [1] - The US economy is expected to remain strong due to robust personal consumption, while the eurozone faces a downgrade in growth expectations [1] - Japan's growth is projected to slow to 0.3% in 2024, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous forecast, despite a strong 1.7% growth in 2023 driven by inbound tourism [1] Geopolitical Risks and Policy Uncertainty - Geopolitical tensions, including US-China rivalry, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Middle East instability, are increasing risks to the global economy [2] - Policy uncertainty is heightened as 64 countries, representing half of the global population, will hold elections in 2024, with the US presidential election on November 5 being a major concern [1][2] - Fiscal expansion pressures are rising in election years, with both US presidential candidates proposing policies that could widen fiscal deficits [2] Trade and Tariff Scenarios - IMF presents an alternative scenario where the US imposes a 10% uniform tariff, and China and the eurozone reciprocate with similar tariffs, resembling the 2018-2019 trade war [1] - This scenario could directly impact 25% of global trade, leading to a 4% decline in global trade volume by 2026 [1] - Combined with factors like the extension of Trump-era tax cuts, immigration restrictions, and financial market instability, global GDP could decline by 0.8% by 2025 and 1.3% by 2026 [1] Structural Reforms and Technological Innovation - IMF emphasizes the need for structural reforms to enhance technological innovation and boost economic productivity, particularly through advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) [2] - The global economy is expected to sustain a long-term growth rate of around 3%, which is historically low, underscoring the importance of productivity-enhancing measures [2]