中金图说中国：2024年四季度

Macroeconomic Overview - China's Q3 GDP growth improved slightly quarter-on-quarter, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, slightly lower than Q2's 4.7%, but the quarter-on-quarter growth was 0.9%, higher than Q2's 0.5% [3] - The GDP deflator in Q3 fell by 0.6% year-on-year, while CPI rose by 0.4% in September, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and core CPI dropped to 0.1%, the lowest in nearly 43 months [3] - PPI in September fell by 2.8% year-on-year, marking 24 consecutive months of negative growth since October 2022 [3] - Retail sales in September grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with car and home appliance sales contributing significantly to the improvement, driven by government policies promoting consumer goods replacement [3] - Monetary policy remains accommodative, with interest rate cuts reducing the debt repayment burden for the real economy by an estimated 1.3 trillion yuan annually, or about 1% of GDP [3] Market Strategy - Domestic economic recovery remains weak, with GDP growth slowing further in Q3, and consumption, retail sales, and real estate investment still under pressure [20] - A-share non-financial profits may continue to face pressure in Q3, with PPI declines weighing on cyclical industries, while financial sector profits are expected to remain stable [20] - Policy signals are positive, and A-share valuations have rebounded, with the market still offering attractive investment opportunities for global investors [20] - Key sectors to watch include electronics, semiconductors, and new energy, with potential for earnings surprises in Q3 reports [20] Fixed Income - The central bank has cut interest rates again, with the 1-year LPR and 7-day reverse repo rates both lowered, easing the debt repayment burden for the real economy [8][11] - The yield on 10-year government bonds remains at historically low levels, indicating continued accommodative monetary policy [43] Commodities - Industrial metals may benefit from a lagged effect of credit impulse, with a potential lead time of around 10 months [63] Foreign Exchange - The RMB exchange rate remained stable in Q3, with the USD/RMB exchange rate at 7.12 as of October 16, 2024 [28] - The US dollar depreciated in Q3, while the RMB appreciated, with the dollar index down 4.8% year-to-date [29] ESG and Quantitative Analysis - The correlation between stock and bond market tails is currently low, reducing the risk of simultaneous declines in both markets [68] - Macro liquidity drivers for stocks and bonds show mixed signals, with commodity liquidity drivers indicating potential upside for commodities [70][71] - Technical indicators for major indices suggest a cautious outlook, with QRS indicators for the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices showing negative trends [71][73]