招商证券：展望四季度工业企业利润增速或明显改善

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that the cumulative profit growth rate of industrial enterprises turned negative in September, with a further decline in profit growth rate, primarily due to increased pressure on prices and profit margins, which is squeezing corporate profitability [1] Group 1: Current Situation - In September, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises shifted from positive to negative, with a significant decline in the growth rate [1] - The decline in profit growth is exacerbated by the drag from prices and profit margins compared to the previous month, indicating a tighter profitability environment for companies [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - For the fourth quarter, there is potential for a noticeable improvement in the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1] - The implementation of a series of incremental policies, particularly the accelerated spending of special bond funds, is expected to effectively enhance the profitability of upstream raw material industries through increased physical workload in infrastructure and construction [1] - The recovery of residents' asset-liability situations and the release of consumer demand, supported by policies, are likely to sustain strong performance in downstream consumer goods manufacturing [1] - It is anticipated that the year-on-year decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) will likely narrow, gradually reducing the price pressure on industrial profits [1] Group 3: Considerations - The high base effect from the same period last year, when industrial profit growth significantly increased in the third quarter, may pose some pressure on the recovery of industrial profits [1] - Continuous observation of the production performance in the real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors is necessary to determine the sustainability of corporate profitability improvements [1]