Vista Energy's Shares Gain 10% Despite Q3 Earnings Miss

Core Viewpoint - Vista Energy S.A.B. de CV (VIST) experienced a 10.2% increase in stock price despite reporting weak Q3 2024 earnings, likely driven by expectations of higher production levels [1] Group 1: Q3 Earnings & Revenues - VIST reported adjusted earnings per share of 55 cents for Q3, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.36 and down from $1.29 in the prior-year quarter [2] - Quarterly revenues reached $462.4 million, up from $302.8 million year-over-year, and exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $442.5 million [2] Group 2: Production and Costs - Total production averaged 72,825 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d), a 47% increase from 49,450 Boe/d in the year-ago quarter, with 87.2% being crude oil [4] - Crude oil production rose to 63,499 barrels per day (Bbls/d) from 41,490 Bbls/d year-over-year, while natural gas liquids production increased by 36% and natural gas output by 16% [4] - Lifting expenses for Q3 were $31.6 million, a 44% increase from $21.9 million year-over-year, but lifting costs per Boe declined by 2% to $4.7 [6] Group 3: Realized Prices - The average realized crude oil price was $68.4 per barrel, up from $67.6 year-over-year, while the average realized natural gas price increased to $3.8 per million Btu from $3.3 [5] - Realized natural gas liquids price rose to $315 per metric ton from $233 [5] Group 4: Financial Position - As of September 30, 2024, VIST had $256.03 million in cash and short-term investments, with long-term debt of $725.2 million and short-term debt of $249.9 million [7] - Capital expenditure totaled $368.5 million, with net cash provided by operating activities amounting to $254.9 million [7] Group 5: Guidance and Projections - VIST aims for production of 85 MBoE/d in Q4 2024, with an annual target of 68 to 70 MBoE/d for 2024, and anticipates growth to 95 to 100 MBoE/d in 2025 [8] - Projected adjusted EBITDA for 2024 is between $1,000 million and $1,150 million, expected to rise to $1,500 million to $1,650 million in 2025, with planned capital expenditures of $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion for 2025 [9]