Earnings Preview: Huntsman (HUN) Q3 Earnings Expected to Decline

Core Viewpoint - Huntsman (HUN) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending September 2024, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for November 4, 2024, with expectations that better-than-expected results could drive the stock price higher, while disappointing results may lead to a decline [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts quarterly earnings of $0.09 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 40%, while revenues are expected to reach $1.55 billion, a 3% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 36.49%, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Huntsman is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -17%, which suggests a bearish outlook from analysts [10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from consensus estimates, with a positive reading being a strong predictor of an earnings beat [6][8]. - However, Huntsman's current combination of a negative Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [10]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Huntsman exceeded the consensus EPS estimate of $0.12 by reporting earnings of $0.14, resulting in a surprise of +16.67% [11]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [12]. Industry Context - Another company in the chemical sector, LyondellBasell (LYB), is expected to report earnings of $2.03 per share for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year decline of 17.5%, with revenues projected at $10.27 billion, down 3.3% from the previous year [16]. - LyondellBasell has also seen a downward revision of its EPS estimate by 12.3% over the last 30 days, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -5.39% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [17].