Is Hurricane Helene a Storm Cloud Over Vulcan's Q3 Earnings?

Earnings Release and Historical Performance - Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2024 results on October 30, before the market opens [1] - In the last reported quarter, the company's adjusted earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.9%, while revenues missed by 1% [2] - Year-over-year, earnings increased by 2.6%, but revenues declined by 4.7% [2] - VMC's earnings have topped the consensus mark in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.5% [2] Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VMC's third-quarter earnings per share has been revised downward to $2.42 from $2.47 over the past seven days, indicating a 5.7% year-over-year rise [3] - The consensus estimate for revenues is $2.07 billion, suggesting a 5.3% year-over-year decline [3] Factors Impacting Q3 Performance - Third-quarter revenues are anticipated to decrease year-over-year due to reduced volumes caused by adverse weather conditions and less traction on cement price increases [4] - Concrete sales are expected to be lower following the sale of the Texas concrete business [4] - Aggregates volumes were affected by Hurricane Helene and decelerating single-family construction activity, particularly in Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Alabama, and Georgia [4] - Strong pricing gains in aggregates, acceleration in infrastructure spending, and accretive acquisitions are likely to have offset some of the negative impacts [5] - The acquisition of Whitaker, closed in the second quarter, is expected to contribute to the company's top line in the third quarter [5] Segment Performance - The Aggregates business, which accounted for 80.1% of total second-quarter revenues, is expected to see net sales grow by 1.8% to $1.66 billion year-over-year, despite a 5.1% decline in volumes and a 10% increase in prices [6] - The Asphalt Mix segment, which accounted for 17.4% of total revenues in the second quarter, is expected to see net sales grow by 2.5% to $355.9 million year-over-year, with volumes increasing by 1% and prices rising by 5.2% [7] - The Concrete segment, which accounted for 8.3% of total revenues in the second quarter, is expected to see revenues decline by 48.1% to $189.1 million year-over-year, with volumes declining by 50.5% and prices increasing by 7.1% [8] Margin Pressures - Higher cost inflation, a shortage of skilled labor, and rising wage costs are expected to have impacted VMC's third-quarter margins [8] Earnings Model and Rank - The Zacks model does not predict an earnings beat for VMC this quarter, with an Earnings ESP of -4.60% and a Zacks Rank 3 [9] Other Companies in the Construction Sector - Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) has an Earnings ESP of +5.92% and a Zacks Rank 3, with earnings expected to decline by 45.1% [10][11] - UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) has an Earnings ESP of +0.37% and a Zacks Rank 3, with earnings expected to decrease by 13.8% [11] - Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) has an Earnings ESP of +0.48% and a Zacks Rank 2, with earnings expected to increase by 41.3% year-over-year [12]