Will Intercontinental Exchange Pull Off a Surprise in Q3 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) is expected to report strong third-quarter 2024 earnings, with a consensus estimate for revenues at $2.35 billion, reflecting a 17.2% year-over-year increase [2]. Revenue Performance - Fixed Income and Data Services revenues are projected to reach $604.9 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $593 million, indicating a 6% increase from the previous year [3]. - The Exchange segment is anticipated to generate revenues of $1.2 billion, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate at $1.6 billion, representing a 4.1% increase year-over-year [4]. - The Mortgage Technology segment's revenues are expected to be $522.3 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $515 million, and reflecting a significant 56% increase from the prior year [5]. Expense Outlook - Total expenses are projected to rise by 19.4% to $969.5 million, driven by higher compensation, professional expenses, and acquisition-related costs [6]. - GAAP operating expenses are expected to be between $1.22 billion and $1.23 billion, while adjusted operating expenses are projected to be between $955 million and $965 million [7]. Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is $1.55, indicating a 6.1% increase from the prior-year quarter [7]. - ICE has an Earnings ESP of +0.48%, suggesting a favorable outlook for an earnings beat [10]. Volume Metrics - ICE reported a 28% increase in third-quarter average daily volume (ADV), with Natural Gas ADV up 33%, Energy ADV up 23%, and Environmental ADV improving by 52% year-over-year [8].