MetLife Stock Before Q3 Earnings: Buy Now or Wait for Results?

Core Viewpoint - MetLife, Inc. is expected to report third-quarter 2024 results on October 30, 2024, with earnings estimated at $2.16 per share and revenues of $18.5 billion, reflecting a year-over-year earnings increase of 9.6% and revenue growth of 1.3% [1][2]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total premiums in the upcoming quarter suggests a 1.4% increase year-over-year, while net investment income is projected to rise by 6.3% due to higher rates and improved variable investment income [7][2]. - For the current year, MetLife's revenue estimate stands at $73.3 billion, indicating a 2.3% year-over-year rise, with EPS expected to reach $8.58, a 17.1% increase from the previous year [2]. Performance Analysis - MetLife has had mixed results in the past four quarters, beating earnings estimates once, meeting once, and missing twice, with an average surprise of 1.3% [3]. - The company is predicted to achieve an earnings beat this quarter, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +0.98% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4]. Business Drivers - Rising premiums and investment income are anticipated to positively impact MetLife's third-quarter results, particularly from improved operations in international markets, especially Asia and Latin America [6][8]. - The Asia segment is expected to benefit from favorable underwriting and improved variable investment income, while Latin America is projected to see growth from higher volumes [8]. Cost Considerations - Despite expected profit growth, rising costs and expenses may partially offset gains, with a projected 10.9% decrease in adjusted earnings for Group Benefits and a 10.5% decline in profits from the U.S. Business [9]. Stock Performance - MetLife's stock has increased by 25.7% year-to-date, outperforming the industry growth of 18.7% and the S&P 500 Index's increase of 21.9% [10]. - The stock is currently trading at 8.65X forward 12-month earnings, which is below the industry average of 9.28X, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [12]. Strategic Focus - The company is diversifying its product portfolio and revenue streams, positioning itself for long-term growth through strategic acquisitions and divestitures of less profitable assets [14]. - Cost-saving initiatives are expected to enhance margins, and a strong solvency position provides resilience in challenging market conditions [15].