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专家观点 | 杨成长《新质生产力下的企业并购重组新动机》
申万宏源研究·2024-10-30 01:36

Core Viewpoints - The core viewpoint of the article is that high-quality mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are essential for fostering new productive forces in the current economic environment The article emphasizes the need for a shift in mindset regarding M&A, highlighting its role as a norm rather than an exception, and discusses the evolving motivations and challenges faced by enterprises in the context of M&A [1][2] Group 1: Shift in Capital Market Perspective - The capital market should shift its focus from equity financing to equity restructuring, differentiation, and combination, as equity financing accounts for only a small fraction of the total social financing balance (10 trillion out of 300 trillion) [2] - M&A should be viewed as a norm, while IPOs should be considered exceptions, reflecting a change in the traditional mindset of capital market participants [2] Group 2: Evolution of Enterprise Development - Enterprises must adapt to the changing economic environment, where rapid growth has slowed from 20%-30% annually before 2013 to 4%-5% or even negative growth in some sectors This shift necessitates a different approach to M&A, focusing on leveraging others' strengths to grow in a stagnant market [3] - The traditional growth strategies of rapid expansion and market capture are no longer viable in the current economic climate, requiring enterprises to rethink their M&A strategies [3] Group 3: Industry Transformation and Labeling - Industries should not be labeled as traditional or modern, as they are constantly evolving For example, digital industries now account for 40% of GDP, while traditional industries like construction have reached their ceiling at 13%-14% [5] - Enterprises should avoid preconceived notions about industries, as industries can transform from traditional to future-oriented sectors, such as the shift from traditional agriculture to biomanufacturing [5] Group 4: Importance of Location in M&A - Enterprises must consider the optimization of regional layouts in M&A decisions, focusing on the cost advantages and economic circulation within city clusters and metropolitan areas [6] - The choice of location should be based on factors such as procurement costs, internal operational costs, and social costs, rather than just local investment incentives or resource availability [6] Group 5: Technological Path Selection - Enterprises face significant challenges in selecting the right technological paths for innovation, as the wrong choice can lead to failure despite the necessity of technological advancement [7] - The rise of new energy vehicles, driven by new entrants rather than established automakers, exemplifies the importance of choosing the correct technological path [7] Group 6: Role of Big Models in M&A - Big model companies are increasingly designed to be acquired, integrating into larger systems rather than operating independently, reflecting a shift in the dynamics of M&A [8] - Industries not operating within big models are expected to become increasingly rare, as consumer behavior is increasingly influenced by digital platforms [8] Group 7: Value Diversification and Risk - ESG considerations are becoming crucial in project valuation, with factors such as social acceptance and ethical implications playing a significant role in determining the success of projects [10] - Enterprises must navigate the risks associated with diverse values, particularly in sectors like biomanufacturing and synthetic food production, where societal acceptance is a key factor [10] Group 8: Integration of Diverse Investment Entities - High-tech enterprises must manage the integration of diverse investment entities, including shareholders, technology investors, risk investors, and financial investors, each with different objectives and investment logics [11] - Conflicts among these diverse investment entities often require M&A and restructuring to resolve, highlighting the complexity of managing multiple stakeholders in modern enterprises [11] Group 9: Challenges in Financial and Corporate Governance - The misalignment between financial tools and corporate governance has led to issues such as risk transfer through betting agreements, where risk is shifted from investors to enterprises, increasing overall risk [12] - Enterprises must respect the diverse motivations and investment logics of their shareholders, often requiring M&A and restructuring to harmonize these differences [12]