Marathon Oil(US:MRO) ZACKS·2024-10-30 15:07Core Viewpoint - Marathon Oil (MRO) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues, with the actual results having a significant impact on its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for November 6, 2024, with expectations of quarterly earnings at $0.64 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 16.9% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $1.72 billion, down 5.4% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 7.26% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Marathon Oil is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -5.42%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from consensus estimates, with a positive reading being a strong predictor of an earnings beat [5][7]. - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 have historically produced a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time [8]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Marathon Oil was expected to post earnings of $0.67 per share but delivered only $0.63, resulting in a surprise of -5.97% [11]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [12]. Conclusion - Marathon Oil does not currently appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider other factors when making decisions regarding the stock ahead of the earnings release [15].