银行｜业绩改善，质量稳定：2024年三季报点评

Performance Overview - Revenue and profit growth improved in Q3 2024 for listed banks, with revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by -1.1% and +1.4% YoY respectively, compared to -2.0% and +0.4% in the first half of the year [2] - Interest income and non-interest income improved slightly, with interest income declining by -3.2% and non-interest income increasing by +5.2% YoY [2] - Credit impairment losses and income tax decreased by -8.4% and -5.6% respectively, supporting profit growth [2] - Profit growth among listed banks varied widely, ranging from -18.4% to +25.9%, with large banks showing more significant recovery compared to joint-stock and rural commercial banks [2] Asset and Liability Structure - Total assets of listed banks grew by +1.9% QoQ in Q3 2024, driven mainly by loans and investment assets, which accounted for over 50% of the net increase in total assets [3] - Large banks saw a significant rebound in asset growth, while joint-stock banks showed slight improvement, and regional banks maintained stable expansion [3] - Total liabilities also grew by +1.9% QoQ, with deposits stabilizing after a sharp decline in Q2, and interbank liabilities accounting for 56.6% of the net increase in total liabilities [3] - State-owned and joint-stock banks performed well in deposit growth, while rural commercial banks continued to reduce interbank liabilities [3] Net Interest Margin (NIM) - The NIM of listed banks narrowed its decline to -2 bps QoQ in Q3 2024, reaching 1.48%, compared to a -4 bps decline in Q2 [4] - The yield on interest-earning assets fell by 10 bps to 3.27%, driven by LPR cuts and weak credit demand, while the cost of interest-bearing liabilities decreased by 8 bps to 1.90%, reflecting structural optimization and deposit rate cuts [5] - The average NIM of 25 listed banks was 1.68% in Q3 2024, down 16 bps from 2023 and 2 bps from the first half of 2024 [5] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income grew by +13.5% YoY in Q3 2024, providing strong support to revenue amid declining net interest income [5] - Fee and commission income declined by -7.3% YoY, an improvement from the -14.2% decline in Q2, as the impact of fee reductions gradually eased [6] - Other non-interest income surged by +39.1% YoY, driven by active investment trading in a declining bond market [6] Asset Quality - The weighted average non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of listed banks remained stable in Q3 2024, with 14 out of 42 banks showing improvement in NPL ratios, particularly joint-stock and city commercial banks [6] - The generalized credit cost improved to 0.36%, down 0.05 pct YoY and 0.13 pct QoQ, reflecting continued cost savings due to stable asset quality [6] - Provision coverage ratios declined slightly to 302.1%, with large banks and rural commercial banks seeing larger reductions compared to joint-stock and city commercial banks [7] Outlook and Investment Strategy - The NIM is expected to continue declining in Q4 2024 due to adjustments in existing mortgage rates and LPR changes, but the trend is expected to remain stable [1] - Revenue and profit growth are projected to continue improving slightly for the full year, supported by ongoing efforts to strengthen bank quality [1] - The current phase is seen as an observation period for macroeconomic policy effects, with potential policy support expected to mitigate risks in sectors like local government financing and real estate [9] - Two investment strategies are recommended: 1) focus on high-dividend, high-capital large banks, and 2) target companies with strong growth potential and superior business models [9]