HTSC(601688) 证券时报网·2024-11-04 01:23Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities anticipates 2025 to be a year of stabilization amid three cyclical resonances, suggesting that the A-share profit cycle is not "disappearing" but is temporarily "flattened" by high-dimensional factors [1] Group 1: Profit Cycle Insights - The A-share profit cycle has been declining for over three years, longer than previous cycles, but is expected to show stronger performance than domestic macro growth and lead overseas equities in stabilizing in the second half of 2025 [1] - Key factors influencing the profit cycle include: 1) Inventory Cycle: A fiscal impulse in Q4 2024 is expected to drive a credit cycle recovery in Q2 2025, leading to a new inventory cycle in China ahead of overseas markets [1] 2) Capacity Cycle: Supply-side reforms are anticipated to show results from Q2 2025 to early Q4 2025, with A-share profit trends potentially outpacing revenue trends [1] 3) Real Estate and Construction Cycle: If real estate sales stabilize in the second half of 2025, the visibility for A-share profit recovery will increase [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The first half of 2025 is expected to face pressure, while opportunities are anticipated in the second half [1] - A "barbell" investment style is projected to outperform, with large-cap growth stocks expected to perform better in the latter half of the year [1] - Domestic demand is viewed as a protective shield, while manufacturing is seen as a key driver [1]