Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold SSRM Stock Before Q3 Earnings Release?

Core Viewpoint - SSR Mining Inc. is expected to report a significant year-over-year decline in earnings for the third quarter of 2024, with an estimated earnings per share of 15 cents, reflecting a 42% drop from the same quarter in 2023 [1][4]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SSR Mining's third-quarter earnings is 15 cents per share, down 28.57% over the past 60 days [1]. - The earnings surprise history shows that SSR Mining has beaten estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 202.55% [4][5]. Production Challenges - A major incident at the Çöpler mine on February 13, 2024, led to a suspension of operations, which significantly impacted production as Çöpler contributed approximately 31% of total production in 2023 [8]. - SSR Mining produced 177,691 gold equivalent ounces in the first half of 2024, a 41% decrease from 303,518 ounces in the first half of 2023, primarily due to a 79.6% drop at Çöpler [9]. - Operations at the Seabee mine were also suspended due to forest fires, which contributed around 15% of gold production in 2023 [10]. Future Production Guidance - SSR Mining is expected to revise its production and cost guidance for Seabee during the upcoming earnings call, with prior guidance set at 75,000-85,000 ounces of gold [11]. - Marigold is projected to produce 155,000-175,000 ounces of gold in 2024, down from 278,488 ounces in 2023, while Puna aims for 8.75-9.50 million ounces of silver, lower than 9.69 million ounces produced in 2023 [11][12]. Market Conditions - Gold prices averaged $2,491 per ounce in the third quarter, a 29% increase year-over-year, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [13]. - Despite higher gold prices, the anticipated lower production is expected to offset gains in SSR Mining's third-quarter performance [14]. Stock Performance and Valuation - SSR Mining's stock has declined 50.7% year-to-date, contrasting with a 1.7% decline in the industry and gains of 9% and 31.6% in the Zacks Basic Materials sector and S&P 500, respectively [15]. - The stock is trading at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 19.62, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.88 [15][16]. Investment Outlook - SSR Mining is well-positioned with strong cash flow and low debt, allowing for investment in high-quality assets, with expectations of increased production at Marigold by 2027 [17]. - Gold prices have risen 33% year-to-date, currently at $2,740 per ounce, indicating a favorable environment for the company [18]. - Investors are advised to hold existing shares due to solid long-term fundamentals, while new investors may consider waiting for a better entry point given the current premium valuation [19].