能源化工｜可持续航空煤油（SAF）：乘风起航，共赴星海

Global Carbon Reduction Policies and SAF Prospects - SAF is the most promising aviation emission reduction method, capable of reducing over 80% of CO2 emissions [2] - By 2050, SAF is expected to account for 65% of the aviation industry's emission reduction tasks [2] - Global SAF demand is projected to reach 15 million tons by 2030, with a market size of 226.6 billion yuan [2] - The EU will mandate a 2% SAF blending ratio starting January 1, 2025, increasing to 6% by 2030, with a corresponding demand of at least 3.23 million tons [2] - China's SAF policy is expected to enter a promulgation window, with potential demand reaching 1.26/3.16/6.32 million tons by 2030 under 2%/5%/10% blending ratios [2] Domestic Supply Constraints and Profitability - By 2030, SAF production will primarily rely on ester and fatty acid hydrogenation (HEFA) processes, with barriers in stable production under complex raw materials [3] - Domestic SAF planned capacity exceeds 2 million tons, but effective new supply by 2025 is expected to be no more than 500,000 tons due to limited HVO production experience and long certification cycles [3] - Domestic waste oil resources exceed 12 million tons, with over 4.2 million tons of industrial-grade mixed oil (UCO) potentially shifting to SAF production, ensuring raw material availability in the medium term [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with rapid progress and high elasticity in SAF deployment [5] - Pay attention to companies with leading technological layouts in SAF [5] - Consider companies with potential deployment opportunities in the SAF sector [5]