地产｜政策支持的止跌攻坚战，周期赋能的龙头成长季：2025年投资策略

Real Estate Policy and Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to stabilize starting from first-tier cities, with a phased and regional approach [1] - By 2025, China's commercial housing sales, new construction area, completed area, and real estate development investment are projected to decrease by 1.3%, 5.2%, 24.3%, and 1.5% respectively, with most indicators showing narrowing declines [1] - The real estate sales environment is the most relaxed in over a decade, with mortgage rates at 3.33% in Q3 2024 and significant reductions in housing transaction taxes [2] - New and existing home transactions increased in October 2024, but prices have not fully stabilized, and existing home listings remain high [2] Policy Tools and Market Stabilization - Short-term demand-side policies still have room for adjustment, including potential reductions in provident fund loan rates and VAT exemptions for large-area homes in major cities [3] - Mid-term policies such as land repurchases are more feasible than repurchasing existing homes, helping to adjust supply structure [3] - Urban village renovation and monetized resettlement could release nearly 200 million square meters of housing demand [3] - With coordinated policy efforts, the real estate market is expected to stabilize [3] 2025 Market Projections - In 2025, national commercial housing sales area and sales volume are expected to decrease by 5.8% and 1.3% respectively, while total new and existing home transactions may slightly increase compared to 2024 [4] - New construction area is projected to decrease by 5.2% in 2025, with a significant narrowing of the decline compared to 2024 [4] - Completed area is expected to decrease by 24.3% in 2025, with high credit leading companies seeing a 19% drop in pending completion area by mid-2024 [4] - Real estate development investment is forecasted to slightly decrease by 1.5% in 2025 [4] Industry Differentiation and Opportunities - Since 2022, high-quality land reserves have given leading companies a significant sales advantage [5] - In October 2024, sales of four major central SOEs increased by 28.5%, significantly outperforming the industry average [5] - Potential net profit margins for land sales in first-tier cities are around 20%, assuming stable housing prices [5] - The differentiation in land acquisition may further enhance the market share and profitability of leading companies [5] Market Dynamics and Brokerage Benefits - The stabilization of the real estate market will lead to sustained transaction volumes in core cities, benefiting service providers with competitive advantages [7] - In the development sector, the logic of leading companies' rise may outweigh the logic of distressed reversals [7]