宏观｜高低线城市消费分化之谜

Core Viewpoints - The significant divergence in consumption between low-tier and high-tier cities began in 2022 during the deep adjustment cycle of the real estate market [1] - Consumption data since 2022 has shown a pattern of "first-tier < new first-tier and second-tier < third-tier and below cities" [1] - The core reasons for this divergence include income differences, consumption willingness, and population mobility [1] - If the real estate market stabilizes, first-tier cities are expected to rebound first, followed by new first-tier and second-tier cities, while low-tier cities will need to wait for substantial income improvements [1] Income and Consumption Trends - Since 2022, income growth across regions has also shown a pattern of "first-tier < new first-tier and second-tier < third-tier and below cities" [1] - In 24Q2, first-tier cities saw negative growth in both retail sales (-2.55%) and per capita consumption expenditure (-0.7%), while third-tier and below cities achieved 4.09% growth in retail sales [2] - High-tier cities experienced faster declines in wage income and higher reliance on property income, contributing to their weaker consumption performance [4] Consumption Willingness - The decline in consumption willingness, particularly due to the shrinking wealth effect, has been a significant drag on consumption in first-tier cities since 2022 [1] - First-tier cities have a 15-percentage-point gap in consumption willingness compared to pre-pandemic levels, primarily due to wealth effect shrinkage [4] - New first-tier and second-tier cities face high debt pressure, which also impacts their consumption willingness [4] Population and Industry Structure - First-tier cities have approximately 80 million permanent residents, with nearly 70% employed in the tertiary sector, including real estate, finance, and IT [5] - New first-tier cities have around 180 million residents, with a strong attraction to young labor forces and a high proportion of manufacturing workers [5] - Third-tier and below cities have about 940 million residents, with a high proportion of workers in primary industries, construction, and government sectors [5] Future Consumption Outlook - If the real estate market stabilizes, first-tier cities are expected to see a rapid rebound in consumption, especially in service consumption [6] - New first-tier and second-tier cities are likely to follow, with strong long-term growth potential due to their population attraction and resilient industrial structures [6] - Third-tier and below cities are expected to maintain steady consumption growth, but significant leaps are unlikely [6] - Future consumption upgrades in first-tier cities will likely focus on service consumption, while other cities will see growth in both service and durable goods consumption [6]