电池与能源管理｜重整旗鼓再出发：2025年投资策略

Electric Vehicles (EVs) & Energy Storage - The domestic EV market is expected to see strong growth driven by policy incentives and new vehicle models, with Q1-Q3 2024 sales reaching 8.32 million units, up 32.5% YoY, and full-year sales projected at 11.97 million units, up 26.7% YoY [2] - EV penetration rate in China is expected to reach 50% on a monthly basis in 2024 [2] - Europe's EV demand is expected to rebound in 2025 with a projected 29% YoY growth due to carbon emission regulations and new model launches [2] - The US EV market is expected to maintain a 40% growth rate in 2025, supported by IRA subsidies and relaxed FEOC restrictions [2] - Global EV sales are projected to reach 18.27 million units in 2024, up 25% YoY [2] - Energy storage demand is expected to grow rapidly due to declining battery costs and improved economic efficiency, with China's new energy storage installations projected to reach 30.0GW in 2024, up 39.9% YoY [3] - The US energy storage market is expected to add 14.9GW in 2024, up 128% YoY, with a potential rush in 2025 ahead of tariff increases in 2026 [3] - Europe's energy storage market is expected to add 11.5GW in 2024, up 12.8% YoY, with large-scale storage projects driving growth [3] Battery Industry - The battery industry is shifting focus from cost to supply-side dynamics, with capital expenditure growth slowing to 14% YoY in Q3 2024, down 27 percentage points YoY [4] - Chinese battery companies are leading in global competitiveness, with accelerated overseas expansion and technological innovation driving profitability and market share growth [4] - Japanese and Korean battery manufacturers are facing declining market share and profitability, while European battery companies are struggling with operational challenges [4] - New battery technologies such as fast charging, semi-solid/solid-state batteries, and sodium-ion batteries are accelerating, with leading companies expected to widen their competitive advantage [4] Lithium Battery Materials - The lithium battery materials sector faced pressure in 2024 due to raw material price volatility and inventory adjustments, but profitability began to recover in Q3 2024 [5] - Leading companies in the lithium battery materials sector have maintained or increased their market share, with the top players in lithium iron phosphate and separators holding 34.5% and 33.0% market shares respectively in H1 2024 [5] - Capital expenditure in the lithium battery materials sector has slowed, with over 50 billion yuan in projects paused or terminated since 2022 [6] - Demand for advanced materials such as high-density lithium iron phosphate, high-nickel ternary, silicon anodes, and carbon nanotubes is expected to grow due to new battery technologies [6] Battery Recycling - The battery recycling industry is expected to see significant growth opportunities as the first wave of EV batteries reaches end-of-life, with a surge in retired batteries expected around 2027 [7] - Policy support, including the "Action Plan for Promoting Large-Scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Replacement" and the "Detailed Rules for Subsidies for Automobile Replacement," is expected to accelerate the battery recycling market [7] - The supply of battery recycling is expected to stabilize as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has paused new approvals for "white list" recycling companies [7] - Leading battery recycling companies are improving lithium recovery rates, with most achieving over 90% recovery, enhancing their market competitiveness [8] Industry Outlook - The EV and energy storage industries are expected to see continued growth in 2025, driven by new vehicle models, carbon emission regulations, and declining raw material costs [1][10] - The battery and materials sectors are expected to benefit from technological innovation and supply-side optimization, with leading companies likely to increase market share and profitability [1][4][10]