基金｜曙光在望，稳中求进：2025年投资策略

Industry Overview and Trends - The domestic mutual fund industry has grown rapidly since 2010, with asset management scale increasing over 10 times, and product categories continuously innovating and expanding [2] - Compared to overseas markets, the domestic mutual fund industry has a lower wealth carrying capacity, with the US mutual fund scale accounting for around 120% of GDP, while domestically it is only about 20% [2] - The domestic equity fund proportion has significant room for growth, with the US domestic equity fund scale accounting for around 40% of the industry, while domestically it has decreased from 60% in 2011 to 19% in Q3 2024 [2] - Index fund investment trend is continuously strengthening, with the US passive equity fund scale exceeding $9 trillion at the end of 2023, accounting for 60% of the equity fund scale, while domestically the index fund scale exceeded 3 trillion yuan in Q3 2024, accounting for 47% of the equity fund scale [2] - Manager concentration is steadily increasing, with the non-monetary fund scale of leading companies steadily rising since 2019, especially in index products [2] - Cross-market investment products are essential elements of wealth allocation, with QDII fund scale growing 5 times since 2019 to over 610 billion yuan, accounting for 2% of mutual funds [2] Fund Manager and Investment Strategy - Active equity fund holding style drift has been continuously decreasing since 2015, with fund managers' investment in market capitalization, growth, and quality styles becoming more stable [3] - The average unilateral turnover rate has continuously decreased from 5.7 times in 2016 to 3.5 times in 2023, with holding cycles becoming longer, but still significantly different from the US equity fund turnover rate of 0.5 times in 2023 [3] - The bond duration of pure bond funds has significantly increased since 2024, with the duration of interest rate bonds, non-fixed open medium and long-term bonds, and short-term bond funds all reaching the highest levels since 2019 [3] - The "fixed income+" fund multi-person co-management model has matured due to holding both stock and bond assets [3] - Fund manager turnover rate has decreased from 3.2% in Q1 2016 to 2.3% in Q3 2024, and is expected to slow down further in the future [3] Fund Products and Performance - Active equity funds have continued to underperform the index in 2024, and quantitative funds have also experienced periodic excess returns [4] - Style and industry have been the main factors dragging down the excess returns of active equity funds in recent years, but stock selection and trading remain their strengths [4] - Quantitative hedge product performance decay is a gradual process, and the impact of short-term drawdowns should be minimized in strategy allocation [4] Fund Holder Behavior - Domestic equity funds have a performance reversal effect, with investors tending to trade on the right side for active funds and on the left side for passive funds, affecting long-term holding experience [4] - In 2023, 88% of mutual fund net assets in the US were held by household investors, similar to the domestic stock and mixed fund holding characteristics, but most US household investors configure mutual funds through retirement accounts or under the advice of investment experts, preferring low fee and low turnover funds [4] Policy and Market Environment - Since 2024, regulatory authorities have issued a series of new regulations and guidelines aimed at improving the transparency and compliance of financial markets and the fund industry, protecting investors' legitimate rights and interests, and promoting the healthy and sustainable development of financial markets [5] - The new "National Nine Articles" established the development goals of the capital market in stages from the next 5 years, 2035, and the middle of this century, proposing measures in strict control of listing access, company supervision, delisting supervision, institution supervision, trading supervision, and promoting the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market [5] - With the gradual implementation of fee reform measures such as management fees, custody fees, commissions, and sales service fees, the business ecosystem model between fund companies and securities companies, and the product pattern of fund companies will be reshaped [5] - Private equity new regulations have comprehensively rectified industry chaos, standardized industry investment management behavior, enhanced the supervision and review of managers and products, accelerated industry survival of the fittest, and strengthened quantitative supervision from dimensions such as securities lending and trading frequency, encouraging fundamental long-term investment and ensuring market fairness [5] - In order to boost market confidence, multiple departments jointly launched a package of policies at the end of September to promote high-quality economic development, including lowering the deposit reserve ratio, policy interest rates, existing mortgage interest rates, unifying the minimum down payment ratio for mortgages, and creating new monetary policy tools [5] Investment Strategy Outlook - For medium-high risk preference investors, it is recommended to actively view equity assets, with core positions recommending quality growth style funds under the improvement of fundamental investment strategy effectiveness, and satellite positions recommending 1000 index enhancement and rotation style funds that can continuously obtain alpha under unclear industry main lines [7] - For medium-low risk preference investors, it is recommended to configure balanced "fixed income+" fund combinations as the core, with convertible bond funds that benefit from the increase in intrinsic option value brought by the increase in underlying stock volatility as satellites [7] - For low risk preference investors, it is recommended to increase the allocation of stable "fixed income+" funds with certain equity exposure according to their own drawdown tolerance, using the "stock-bond seesaw" effect to smooth market fluctuations and improve holding experience [7]